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OUR WEEK 10 MONDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL PICKS
We try to lay out a few Over/Unders that we feel good about for each slate, and encourage you to take our advice, but put your own twist on it! We aren't perfect and we can't see the future - our goal is merely to help you make the most informed entries you can. We recommend picking two players and doing a Flex play to hedge your bets if one game doesn't go the way you expect.
Disclaimer: Ugly games are hard to predict, and divisional matchups can often be ugly. Kirk Cousins - 17 - UNDER
So far this year, the Bears are allowing the fewest fantasy points to the QB position of any team in the NFL. That includes 14.6 to Ryan Tannehill last week, 13.1 to Tom Brady in week 5, and 12.2 to Matt Ryan in week 3, so it's not like that statistic has been entirely the product of weak matchups. Chicago is expecting 12 mph winds - not impossible to throw in, but not necessarily friendly to the passing game, either. The Vikings have tried to keep the ball out of Kirk's hands with a high-volume run game since the bye week, and the Bears have pretty much eaten the Vikings offensive line alive in their past two years of meetings. All that adds up to say Cousins, averaging 16.5 fantasy points per game, is probably not going to exceed his season average in this matchup.
Darnell Mooney - 11 - UNDER
Mooney has been a very promising rookie WR - and he'd be a legitimate star if he were getting more catchable balls on his downfield routes. Mooney is getting 5+ targets a game consistently, yet he's still only gone over 11 twice this year - and both were in games with a touchdown. Mooney feels like a downfield, big-play threat. And while the Vikings secondary has been very beatable this year, the one thing they've been pretty good at since the bye is avoiding the big play. Combine that with just enough wind to make deep throws lower-percentage and it feels like taking the under is playing the smart odds here.
Kyle Rudolph - 6.5 - OVER
The Bears are giving up the fewest fantasy points in the league to QBs and WRs, and the 5th-fewest to RBs. But where are they vulnerable? The TE position, where they've actually given up the 13th-most fantasy points. That includes 11.2 to Jonnu Smith last week and 16.1 to Jared Cook the week prior. Rudolph has an extremely low line here - a TD gets him instantly over 6.5, and even a pretty forgettable 3 catches for 35 yards would get him there. The kicker is that Minnesota's other TE, Irv Smith, is out this week. The two have effectively split snaps and targets this season, so it's possible we see Rudolph's workload go way up this week with Smith out. Smash the over on an incredibly low line here.
Dalvin Cook - 20 - OVER
Man...this is a tough one for us. You should all know that we at Fantasy HQ are Vikings fans, so it's hard to be objective! The Bears run D is great, and Cook has actually never scored more than 20 points against the Bears (in his 3 matchups). This projection feels like a trap...but how can you bet against Dalvin Cook after putting up 39+ PPR points in the last two games? We're taking the over because we believe the Vikings are going to once again be forced to get it done on the ground (it's their only hope). Ryan Nall - 8.5 - UNDER
David Montgomery is out for the Bears this week, leaving a mess of below-average runningbacks to fight for catches and carries. Last week, Nall came in and went 4/4 for 35 and a TD through the air; but I don't see that happening tonight. The Bears just elevated Lamar Miller from the practice squad and they still have their gimmick guy Cordarrelle Patterson who could see work. If this year has taught us one thing, it's that when an RB gets injured, his carries almost never go to the player you'd expect. (Hello Jamycal Hasty, D'Ernest Johnson, Joshua Kelley). We think there's a good chance Nall doesn't get enough work to break the 8.5 line here.
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