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Entries are so simple, they can be made in less than 60 seconds. On PrizePicks, you simply select 2, 3, 4, or 5 players and predict if they will go over or under their fantasy projection.
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Sunday we went 5/5 on our picks in a 5 pick flex and 3/3 in a 3 player power play!
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We try to lay out a few Over/Unders that we feel good about for each slate, and encourage you to take our advice, but put your own twist on it! We aren't perfect and we can't see the future - our goal is merely to help you make the most informed entries you can.
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Week 17 - Sunday Picks
*Reminder - points are in PPR format!
This week we picked 5 over/unders that we really like, and also included 5 "lower confidence" picks that we will mix into some lineups!
Wayne Gallman vs DAL - 11 points - OVER
11 is WAY Too low of a line for any RB facing the #32 ranked Dallas Cowboys. Gallman has been over 11 in 6/9 games as the lead back in New York. The 3 games he's been under 11 have actually been the last 3 weeks...so that is why the projection is low on Prize Picks this week. In the last 3 weeks, Gallman has still been the lead back, they have just been ugly games where the Giants have gotten down early and needed to abandon the run game. We don't expect that to happen this week vs a pretty bad Dallas team. Dallas has been terrible vs the run, even letting up 20+ points to Gio Bernard last week...Smashing the over on Gallman this week!
Mason Rudolph vs CLE - 14 - UNDER
Do you remember what the Pittsburgh Steelers offense looked like last year under Mason Rudolph? Remember when he was benched for Duck Hodges? Remember how even established targets like JuJu Smith-Schuster basically slid into fantasy irrelevance? Rudolph is starting again this week as the Steelers rest up their slumping starters in hopes of kickstarting a playoff run. Rudolph played all snaps in six games last year, and never scored higher than 17 points. He was under 14 in half his games and just barely over 14 in another. Starting center Maurkice Pouncey will sit, and we can't imagine the Steelers want to use JuJu or James Conner all that much. The odds are stacked against Rudolph, and even at this low line, he's a solid under play.
Kyler Murray vs LAR - 22 points - UNDER Yes, Kyler has been awesome this year...but this week 17 win-and-in matchup vs the Rams isn't a walk in the park. Kyler is still all over the injury reports and is definitely far from 100% health. We don't expect him to rush as much this week, and that kills some of his serious fantasy value. In week 13 vs the Rams, Kyler only put up 15.4 points, and we expect this game to look fairly similar, with the Rams starting a backup QB and really needing their defense to be suffocating.
Kirk Cousins vs DET - 21 points - OVER So... Detroit gave up 29 fantasy points to Tom Brady. In a single half. Brady was the #2 fantasy QB last week, and he got benched at halftime because the Bucs were up so big. And that wasn't just a one-week anomaly. Detroit has been downright awful on defense this year - they're the second-easiest fantasy matchup for QBs and the easiest to WRs. Minnesota is already eliminated, and star running back Dalvin Cook is not playing. There's really nothing for Minnesota to play for, outside of padding Justin Jefferson's stats for his Offensive Rookie of the Year resume, and maybe trying to establish some momentum in the passing game for next season. Jefferson's over is another good play, but Kirk's is even safer: take the solid QB with two elite WRs playing a terrible defense and don't look back.
Tee Higgins vs BAL - 13.5 - UNDER
Tee Higgins is playing through a hamstring injury and with a very low-end backup QB. That alone is reason to lean under here. But the matchup is brutal, too. Baltimore is the 6th-toughest matchup for fantasy WRs this year. And even with Joe Burrow starting in week 5, Higgins scored just 10.2 points against Baltimore while catching only half his targets. Baltimore needs to win to make the playoffs, and they won't go easy on backup QB Brandon Allen. Take the under on Higgins, who needs a really good game to go over 13.5 against Baltimore.
Lower Confidence Picks We're Going to Mix Into Lineups...
D'Andre Swift vs MIN - 14.5 points - OVER
Swift has fully taken over the Detroit Lions backfield, and he has been really fun to watch on the field. He's getting it done on the ground, and through the air, averaging 5 targets over the last 3 weeks (giving him a nice PPR bonus). Minnesota's defense is better than they were early in the season, but they are still getting crushed by opposing RB's (i.e Kamara putting up 6 TD's last week). Swift at 14.5 seems to be an easy over this week unless somehow the Vikings get out to a big lead like Tampa did on Detroit last week. Mike Gesicki vs BUF- 11 points - OVER
Gesicki has a really interesting matchup this week. Buffalo is the 8th-easiest matchup for fantasy TEs, but the 4th-toughest against fantasy WRs. Gesicki is a tight end, but Miami uses him like a wide receiver (lining up out wide or in the slot) about as often as they use him along the line in a typical tight end spot. Either way, though, Gesicki has become a target-hog of a TE, and that gives him a shot to go over 11 with or without a TD. He's also caught TDs in three of his last four games. Gesicki is a solid OVER choice this week.
Mike Evans vs ATL - 15 points - OVER
Mike Evans is having yet another incredible season, and he's been getting it done for fantasy managers every week. He has been over 15 points in 6 of his last 8 games, and this week he gets a favorable matchup vs Atlanta. Just two weeks ago he went 6/7 for 110 yards vs the Falcons, putting up 17 ppr points. Tampa Bay is heating up, and will want to keep the pedal on the gas this week! We expect Evans to get it done vs. the weak Atlanta secondary again this week!
Ryan Tannehill vs HOU - 22.5 points - OVER
Tannehill is a very good QB in an incredibly easy matchup. (Houston has been torched by the pass all season and just gave up 23 points to a guy named Brandon Allen). So why does his line seem low? From a fantasy perspective, his only real concern has been volume. When Tennessee can run the ball, they'll be content to do that all day. Tannehill has only been over 22.5 in two of his last ten games this season. But that's a bit misleading - he had a run of tough matchups through the middle of the year (Indy twice, Pittsburgh, Chicago and Baltimore) and has had four games in that stretch with less than 25 passing attempts. Here's why we think this week will be different: Houston has an elite QB with some good skill players facing a brutally bad Tennessee secondary. And Houston themselves have a porous secondary. Meanwhile Tennessee still desperately needs a win to make the playoffs. That's the recipe for a shootout, where the Titans will probably have to throw the ball to keep pace. This line isn't really that high, and if passing volume on both sides is high, Tannehill is a really solid bet to go over.
Sterling Shepard vs DAL - 12.5 points - OVER
Sterling Shepard has been quietly having a solid fantasy season since he came back from injury in week 7. Since his return, he's had 5 games with Daniel Jones, and in 4 of those 6 games, he's been over 12.5 ppr points. In the two games he missed the 12.5 mark, he was within 2 points. Dallas has an atrocious secondary, and Sterling Shepard should get it done this week.
So what do you think? Agree with some of our takes, and disagree with others? Enter YOUR picks on Prize Picks today!
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