PRIZE PICKS: Sunday Slate (Week 9)
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OUR WEEK 9 SUNDAY SLATE PICKS
We try to lay out a few Over/Unders that we feel good about for each slate, and encourage you to take our advice, but put your own twist on it! We aren't perfect, but we try to help you make the most informed entries you can. We recommend picking two players and doing a Flex play to minimize risk! DK Metcalf @ BUF - 18 points - UNDER (Trent)
It’s hard to pick Under on DK, because he’s been so good this season - but this week, we’re expecting him to have a brutal matchup vs Tre’Davious White, who is arguably the best CB in the league. We’ve got a feeling this is going to be another big Lockett week, and just an average Metcalf week.
Noah Fant @ ATL - 10 points - OVER (Trent)
When healthy, Fant has looked like the #1 target on the Broncos. We’re expecting a high scoring week vs. the Falcons, and love the over on Noah Fant! The game is in a dome and has the week's second-highest total points line, so all the elements are there for a shootout.
Terry McLaurin vs NYG - 16.5 points - UNDER (Trent)
Man, this is a tough one. McLaurin scored 14.4 points against this Giants defense in their last matchup without even scoring a TD...so if he finds the endzone in this matchup, he probably will go over. We’re banking on Bradberry (one of the league‘s top cornerbacks) to spend a little more time locking down McLaurin this week, making him TD dependent to go over.
Antonio Gibson vs NYG - 14 points - OVER (Jared)
I tend to believe that teams do a better job of game-planning around their rookies after the bye week. Early in the year, no one really knows exactly what they have in their rookies, and it’s too risky to build a gameplan around them as a central piece. But Washington just had a bye week to evaluate what they have in Gibson - and what they have is a size & speed outlier at RB who can also catch the ball and run routes. Gibson saw his carries almost double the week before the bye, and we bet his high workload continues in a juicy matchup.
D.J. Chark vs HOU - 12 points - UNDER (Jared)
This one is a little counter-intuitive from my usual strategy of taking the under on high lines. Chark’s 12-point line is one of the lowest lines this week. But a rookie 6th-round pick starting at QB means Chark has tremendous risk this week. We all saw how a Ben DiNucci-led Cowboys offense quickly became bad enough that no one had fantasy value. The upside for Chark is the hope that a young QB locks on to his best receiver and feeds Chark targets. But targets aren’t the issue for Chark; he’s averaging 8.5 targets a game over his past four games, and still has only topped 12 points once.
Chase Edmonds vs MIA - 17.5 points - OVER (Jared)
Be warned up front: this pick has some definite risk involved. The trend this year has been that when a starting RB goes down, their workload gets split out between a committee of backups. Very few of the injury-fill-in waiver wire pickups have worked out this year. But my pick here is more a testament to how good I think Edmonds is than a belief that he’s locked into a lead-back role. Edmonds was already getting a good amount of targets each week, even with Drake in. Based on his incredible yards-per-carry efficiency numbers, if Edmonds even sees a moderate uptick in his rushing attempts, he has a good chance to crack 17.5 points - something he’s done two of his past three games even while splitting time with Drake.
The worries are still there, though. Kyler Murray is very likely to vulture a rushing TD, and it’s possible Edmonds retains his passing work without necessarily inheriting a lot of Drake’s carries. I think the upside is worth the risk, though, especially as part of a low-money flex play pick.
One pick to be risk-aware on: Keenan Allen (illness) was a late addition to the injury report, so if you're picking the over on his 18.5-point line, be warned that he could miss the week and lose you your pick before the games even start.
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