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We try to lay out a few Over/Unders that we feel good about for each slate, and encourage you to take our advice, but put your own twist on it! We aren't perfect and we can't see the future - our goal is merely to help you make the most informed entries you can.
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Week 12 - Our Thanksgiving Thursday Picks
Game Previews: What would have been a pretty solid field of three games to pick from is going to shrink, as it sounds like COVID-19 is going to push the Ravens-Steelers game to Sunday.
That leaves us with Texans-Lions and Washington-Dallas. The Lions are very banged up at the skill positions: Kenny Golladay remains out, D’Andre Swift is questionable while in the late stages of the concussion protocol, and Matthew Stafford has been dealing with a thumb injury. Washington-Dallas is a divisional matchup with a relatively low scoring line, so you might notice a fair amount of ‘unders’ in our picks.
But that’s just our take - if you see the game-script trending more toward shoot-out (which is possible in the Texans-Lions game if both offenses play to their potentials), adjust your picks accordingly!
Deshaun Watson @ Detroit - 25.2 - UNDER (Jared)
Watson has played very well lately, but 25.2 is a high line. The main concern is that if an injury-riddled Detroit offense is as terrible as it was last week (zero points and 185 total yards against a Carolina defense giving up 24.7 points and 362 yards a game), Houston won’t have to do a lot through the air to get the win. Watson has been over this line only three times all season, so we’ll stick with the under, even knowing that Watson easily has the talent and weapons to blow up if the game stays close.
T.J. Hockenson vs Houston - 10.8 - OVER (Trent)
Hockenson is the TE4 on the season right now, and he's been pretty consistent to get there. He's been over 10.8 points in 6 of 10 games this year. In 3 of the 4 he wasn't over 10.8, he was within 1.5 points! He really has only had one "bust" game this year where he scored 3.3 points. With Golladay and Amendola out, Hockenson is one of the only options left for Stafford to throw too! Even if this turns into a low scoring game, Hockenson should be able to get his 10.8.
Duke Johnson @ Detroit - 12.7 - UNDER (Jared)
Duke Johnson has now effectively had three weeks as the lead back in this offense, and it’s yielded 14.3, 5.4, and 6.5 points even in full-point-per-reception scoring. Volume hasn’t been an issue with 15+ touches each week. Duke just isn’t very efficient with his carries and has only gotten into the end zone once. That effectively makes this a TD-dependent line, and we’ll go with the under, figuring that Watson, Fuller, Cooks, or any of the team’s stable of TEs have chances to vulture any touchdown opportunities away from Johnson.
Andy Dalton vs Washington - 17.2 - UNDER (Jared)
Sure, Andy Dalton returned from concussion/COVID last week and immediately dropped 20.3 on the Vikings. But that was a Vikings defense that has been pretty hapless this year, with no real pass rush and young, beatable corners. We’d expect Washington’s much-more-formidable front 7 to put the heat on Dalton this week and make this 17.2-point line a much tougher sell. For what it’s worth, Dalton only threw for 203 yards against a bad Minnesota secondary, so he probably needs to repeat his 3 TD performance to go over this line - that’s not a high-probability expectation.
Ezekiel Elliott vs Washington - 17.4 - UNDER (Trent)
Just two weeks ago, most fantasy managers were panicking and selling Elliot for scraps after he scored 6.1, 8.3, and 8.9 points in weeks 7-9 before the bye. The 6.1 total in week 7 was actually against Washington...so that definitely tells us something. Coming out of the bye, he had a pretty solid game, against one of the worst defenses in the league (Minnesota), and now his projections have jumped back up to 17.4? I don't buy it. Washington actually has a pretty great defense, and they allow the 11th fewest fantasy points to opposing RBs. I think Zeke is going to need to find the endzone AND put up 100 yards to make this total happen. Give me the UNDER!
Antonio Gibson @ Dallas - 14 - OVER (Trent)
For those of you who read this article weekly...here we are again. I've taken the over on Gibson for the last 4 weeks, and I've only been wrong once! Do you know Gibson is up to the RB11 in PPR scoring? Do you remember his last matchup vs this Dallas defense where he put up 20 carries for 128 yards and a TD? We do! He keeps getting more work, he keeps getting redzone carries, and he keeps getting TDs (8 TD's over 10 games). I'm thinking Gibson finds the endzone again, adds a couple of receptions, and yet again, hits the over.
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