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OUR WEEK 11 SUNDAY SLATE PICKS
We try to lay out a few Over/Unders that we feel good about for each slate, and encourage you to take our advice, but put your own twist on it! We aren't perfect and we can't see the future - our goal is merely to help you make the most informed entries you can. We recommend picking two players and doing a Flex play to hedge your bets if one game doesn't go the way you expect. Julio Jones @ New Orleans - 18 points - UNDER
An incredible player with a very high line in a tough matchup - that’s been our go-to formula for finding successful picks. It’s hard to pick against a player of Jones’ caliber - but that’s alway why his line is the highest of any player this week. The Saints defense has been outstanding since the bye week, and the Saints offense is likely to trend more to a run-based, ball-control offense with Taysom Hill likely in for Drew Brees. Julio could have a solid game and still not hit this line - take the under and play the odds.
Robby Anderson vs Detroit - 15.5 points - UNDER
After a hot start to the season, Anderson has dropped off some. He also faces QB uncertainty this week, with Teddy Bridgewater nursing a knee injury. Even in a good matchup, 15.5 is an optimistic line. The Panthers offense feels good enough to sustain one or two good WRs a week - but it’s always a struggle predicting whether it’ll be Robby, D.J. Moore, or Curtis Samuel. All together, it’s just not the perfect setup for Robby this week with a relatively high scoring line.
Mark Andrews vs Tennessee - 11 - OVER
Lamar Jackson has had his issues in the passing game this year. But so has the Tennessee secondary. If the past year and a half has proven one thing, it’s that when this offense clicks, the tight end is usually the first one who really gets rolling from a fantasy perspective. Andrews is coming off of 9 targets last week, and typically gets 5+ targets a week. Against a porous secondary, he really only needs that target floor and/or a TD to hit this 11-point line, and we feel pretty good that he’ll get one or both of those things.
Terry McLaurin vs Cincinnati - 18 points - UNDER
We love Terry as much as anyone, but we’ve gotta take the under here. Any time a line is as high as 18, it feels like we’re being baited. If McLaurin is going to hit this mark, he is either going to need a TD, or he is going to need to put up 8 for 100 yards. Both are doable - but the odds are less than 50%. McLaurin has only scored 3 TD’s in his 9 games, and he’s only had 3 games over 100 yards. Love ya, Terry - but we’re taking the under.
Mike Davis vs Detroit - 15.3 points - OVER
Davis started the season like he was shot out of a cannon, averaging 25 points per game in his first three games. Since then, things have cooled off for Davis, and he’s been quiet - scoring less than this 15.3 in the last 5 games. You’d think that would make us take the under here, but we’re actually jumping on the over. This could blow up in our face, but CMC is out, Davis should be back to full health (he’s been battling a thumb injury), and he’s playing a Detroit defense that is terrible against the run!
Antonio Gibson vs Cincinnati - 14 points - OVER
Gibson continues to heat up! I swear he’s been one of our Prize Picks every week. Gibson has 7 TDs over 9 games, so we like the odds of him bringing in another one this weekend. Alex Smith is king of the dump off passes, and last week he threw 19 targets to the running backs. Most of those went to fellow RB JD McKissic, but Gibson did pull in 4/4 showing he can be a reliable option for Smith. This week he could see an increased role in the passing game, which helps give him a higher PPR floor!
Travis Fulgham @ Cleveland - 12 points - OVER
We’re going to keep this one short and sweet. Fulgham has been over 12 points in 5 out of 6 games this year. He only missed the mark last week when he was shadowed by one of the best CB’s in the league (Bradberry). We think he’ll bounce back this week, and 12 points is a really soft line.
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