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We try to lay out a few Over/Unders that we feel good about for each slate, and encourage you to take our advice, but put your own twist on it! We aren't perfect and we can't see the future - our goal is merely to help you make the most informed entries you can.
**We recommend picking two or three players and selecting the Flex play option to hedge your bets if one game doesn't go the way you expect.**
Week 12 - Our Monday Night Football Picks!
Game Preview:
The Seattle defense has been a gift to fantasy football managers all year. The former Legion of Boom is ranked 32nd (dead last) in the NFL in fantasy points given up to WRs, and 31st in fantasy points given up to QBs.
But it's also a case of very-stoppable-force-meets-very-movable-object. The Eagles have struggled mightily on offense this year, battling through injuries and a brutally slumping QB. Carson Wentz leads the league in interceptions and has only thrown for more than 250 yards three times this season.
Seattle is favored by almost a touchdown in a game with a fairly low total points line of 49. That's despite Seattle's high-flying offense, which has often seemed to score at will on any opponent. Russell Wilson has fallen a little off his ridiculous early-season pace, with 7 interceptions in the past five games. But the big question from a fantasy points perspective is whether he'll need to air it out for 350 yards against an Eagles team that has struggled to get out of its own way at times this year.
Chris Carson @ PHI - 15 points - OVER (Jared)
It’s always risky banking on a player in his first week off of injury. But Carson has really been a rock-solid fantasy performer when he’s been on the field. Despite Seattle going very pass-heavy this season, Carson went over 15 points in four of his first five games before suffering the foot injury that kept him out a month. We also have a general rule of thumb: when a point line probably requires a TD for the over, you should probably only take the over if that player has scored a TD in more than half his games. Carson put up 6 TDs in 5 games to start the season, so he feels like a better than 50/50 bet to get into the end zone again this week. As a bonus, we could see Seattle putting an emphasis on their run game to help calm down Russell Wilson, who has starting throwing a concerning number of interceptions in the last month or so.
Russel Wilson @ PHI - 25 - UNDER (Trent)
Russ started the year with insane numbers and was the fantasy QB1 by a longshot. He’s come back down to earth a bit over the last two weeks, only putting up 10 points vs. a stout Rams D, and only 18 points in a kinda-ugly Thursday night win vs. Arizona.
It’s hard to take the under on Wilson no matter what the line is...but Philly has actually been decent vs. QB’s this year. We think Russ is going to have a really solid game, but we’re not projecting this to be a crazy shootout, so Russ might not need to cook for 400 yards and 3 TD’s.
Carson Wentz vs SEA - 16.6 points - OVER (Jared)
As someone who has been burned streaming Wentz in favorable matchups, I’m all-too-aware of just how bad the former franchise cornerstone has been this season. But that risk is somewhat built-in to this line, which is more than two points below Wentz’s season average despite the Seahawks being historically weak against the pass.
This is the matchup of all matchups for offensive skill players - Seattle is giving up almost 350 passing yards a game on average. They gave up 17.5 fantasy points to Nick Mullens. They gave up 35.5 fantasy points to Cam Newton. Neither is a great passer. Neither is particularly close this year. We’re far from sold that Wentz will magically return to form this week. But we also think even the shriveled husk of what was once Carson Wentz’s career has a good chance to go over 16.6 points in this matchup. The only real concern: how much will Philly work in rookie Jalen Hurts? If you think Hurts will vulture a rushing TD or more than 10% of snaps, then this line gets a lot more concerning.
Dallas Goedert vs SEA - 11.2 points - OVER (Trent)
Goedert has been Wentz’s go-to guy this year (when healthy). Goedert is probably the number one option in the Eagles passing game, and this line is pretty low. Goedert could realistically hit this line with a stat line of 5 catches for 62 yards, which wouldn't take a whole lot. We think the odds of him getting 5-6 catches OR coming down with a TD are too good to go against. Zach Ertz remains on injured reserve, so there should be plenty of targets to go around.
Miles Sanders vs SEA - 15 points - UNDER (Jared) OVER (Trent)
It's our weekly split pick - we give you the best arguments on both sides, so you can see which one strikes you as most likely to come true:
UNDER: Seattle has been surprisingly OK against running backs this year. It's not totally clear if that's a product of (1) the Seahawks actually playing the run well, (2) opponents choosing not to run because it's so easy to pass against Seattle, or (3) opponents abandoning the run because they have to to keep up with Russell Wilson's insane scoring pace. Regardless of which of those three you buy as the main factor, some or all of them should be at play to lower Sanders' output this week. The other big worry is that if Jalen Hurts gets enough snaps to steal a rushing TD or two, Sanders ceiling is going to drop dramatically. We've seen it happen to other good RBs with rushing-threat QBs (Kenyan Drake, Devin Singletary, Alvin Kamara), and it makes 15 points a riskier line than it should be.
OVER: While the Seahawks aren't as bad against fantasy RBs as they are against every other position, they're also far from good: they rank 21st in the league, giving up 19.0 points a week to the RB position. Sanders has gotten 20+ touches in each of his two games since returning from injury, and Philly isn't really splitting off any significant portion of its RB carries or targets to other players. That makes Sanders a bell-cow RB who isn't dependent on game-script, and it's hard to take the under on a player like that, especially when the line is a pretty moderate 15 points against a very soft defense.
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