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We try to lay out a few Over/Unders that we feel good about for each slate, and encourage you to take our advice, but put your own twist on it! We aren't perfect and we can't see the future - our goal is merely to help you make the most informed entries you can.
**We recommend picking two or three players and selecting the Flex play option to hedge your bets if one game doesn't go the way you expect.**
Week 13- Our Sunday Slate Picks
*Reminder - points are in PPR format!
Derrick Henry vs Cleveland - 20.6 - UNDER (Trent)
Let's start off this week's picks with a contrarian one! How can we take the under on the hottest RB in football right now? To be honest, 20.6 is a high PPR projection for Henry, who only averages 1.2 receptions per game. Henry has actually only surpassed this 20.6 line in 3 games this season. In each of those games, he had at least 119 yards, and 2 TDs. I'm not saying Henry isn't going to have a great game...but to hit this line, he's going to need 120+ yards AND 2 TDs. I'm going to bank on one of those things not happening and take the under. The Browns also have a decent run defense - only allowing 1 rushing TD over the last 5 weeks.
Kyler Murray @ LA Rams - 23 - UNDER (Jared)
It's no secret that the diminutive Murray has been banged up this year, and that's caused a dip in the rushing production that made him a fantasy MVP for much of the year. Murray has had a season-low 5 rushing attempts in his past two games, with zero rushing TDs. The coaching staff appears to be trying to protect their young asset by spreading the rushing attempts and TDs to the running back group. That's all just a discussion on Murray's current outlook - throw in a matchup with a suffocating Rams defense that is currently #1 in the league in fewest fantasy points given up to the QB position (just 14.5 per game) and you've got a recipe for an UNDER pick.
James Robinson @ Minnesota - 17.5 - UNDER (Trent)
Man...I'm probably really making some people mad this week, taking the under on two fantasy favorites (Robinson & Henry), but I feel like it needs to be done. Robinson has been great this year. He's the RB4 on the year, and personally - I'm a big fan! Robinson has only been over 17.5 points in 4 of 11 games. In each of those games, he broke the 17 mark by scoring a TD. The Vikings really struggled against the run early in the season, but they have actually been decent lately, particularly in the red zone. They have only let up 2 TDs to RB's in the last 6 games. If Robinson breaks 17.6 this week, he is probably going to need 100+ yards, 1 TD, and a bit of work in the passing game. The passing game is the one part that makes me question this pick...last week with Mike Glennon, Robinson had 5 catches for 31 yards, which added 8 ppr points to his stats. With Glennon back under center this week, we might see Robinson tear the Vikings apart in the passing game - which would likely put him over 17.5 points, and make me a fool!
Brandin Cooks vs @ Indianapolis - 15 - UNDER (Jared)
Cooks is going to be the trendy over pick for players expecting a huge surge in targets with Will Fuller suspended. But make no mistake: that change is already baked into this points line. It's not like Cooks has been stuck in a middling role all year. Starting in week 5, he went on a run with 8+ targets in five straight games. This isn't a guy going from 50% of snaps to 100% of snaps - Cooks has already been a focal point of this offense, and he's only gone over 15 three times in the past seven games. Indianapolis has generally been a very tough matchup for WRs, and don't be fooled by last week's blowout against Tennessee - Indy was without star pass-rushing DT DeForest Buckner, who should be back this week. Looking at the big picture, we're taking the under this week, and expecting this to be a sneaky line that tricks too many mangers into taking the over just based on the Fuller news.
TJ Hockenson @ Chicago - 11.2 - OVER (Trent)
TJ Hockenson is the TE3 on the year, averaging 11.8 points per game. He's been great, and with Golladay likely out again this week, Hockenson is Stafford's favorite target on the field. The Chicago defense is pretty solid, but the one place that teams have been beating them is through the air with their TE. Chicago has let up 5 TDs to TEs over the last 5 weeks. We feel pretty good about Hockenson hitting the 11.2 line with or without a TD! In week 1 vs Chicago, he was 5/5 for 56 yards and a TD, putting up 16.6 fantasy points.
Baker Mayfield vs Tennesee - 16 - OVER (Jared)
It's tough to evaluate Baker Mayfield on season-long stats - he had back-to-back 5-point games that were completely derailed by terrible weather. This week, he should get normal playing conditions, and matches up with the 5th-worst defense against fantasy QBs. In the past month, Tennessee has given up 18.8 and 16.3 fantasy points to Philip Rivers, 17.5 to a slumping Lamar Jackson, and 21.6 to Nick Foles and the worst offense in football. Cleveland may try to go run-heavy... but this is also the highest total points line of any game this week (53.5), and if the game hits that line, both sides will probably be scoring fast enough to require both QBs to throw the ball to keep up.
Mitch Trubisky vs Detroit - 15 - OVER (Trent)
It actually pains me to say that I'm taking Trubisky OVER 15 points...but let's face it, it might be ugly to watch him play, but he finds a way to put up decent fantasy numbers when he's on the field. Trubisky has played in 4 games this year and he's been over 15 points in 3 of those 4 games, and the only game he wasn't over is the game he got pulled from. I guess I'm just banking on the Bears keeping Trubisky in the game for 4 quarters because I think if he's in...he's over!
Jamison Crowder vs Las Vegas - 11.5 - UNDER (Jared)
Oh, how we miss the Crowder of old. At the beginning of the season, when Crowder was the only show in town, the WR was soaking up 10-13 targets a week and crushing as a fantasy asset. But the Jets other receivers are finally healthy, and with Perriman and Mims in the mix, Crowder hasn't seen more than five targets since week 6. Sure, the Raiders defense isn't great... but neither is the Jets offense. We expect Crowder to continue to get his medium portion of a fantasy points pie that just doesn't have a lot of bulk to go around. A TD probably gets him over. But if your line comes down to the Jets scoring a TD, you're never in bad shape taking the under.
So what do you think? Agree with some of our takes, and disagree with others? Enter YOUR picks on Prize Picks today!
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