PRIZE PICKS: Week 7 Sunday Slate
Updated: Oct 24, 2020
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OUR WEEK 7 SUNDAY SLATE PICKS
We try to lay out 5 Over/Unders that we feel good about for each slate, and encourage you to take our advice, but put your own twist on it! We aren't perfect, but we try to help you make the most informed entries you can! Kamara (vs. CAR) - 24- OVER (Trent) *When we wrote this, Kamara's line was at 21.5 points. It has since jumped up to 24. We are still taking the over...but we're not nearly as excited about it!
Last week 23% of guys who had lines set at 15+ ended up under, so It’s a little bit scary taking the “over” on guys that are projected this high, but Kamara feels like the guy to do it on. Kamara has been over 21.5 ppr points 3 times this season, and the two games he was under, he was within 2 points. Carolina is the 32nd ranked DST vs the run, and New Orleans has its top two receivers (Mike Thomas, Emmanuel Sanders) out this week. That’s going to keep Kamara’s receiving volume high in addition to his great rushing matchup, so we think he’ll hit this line unless the Saints offense really goes off the rails.
Ezekiel Elliot (@ WAS) - 20.5 points - UNDER (Jared)
It feels like sacrilege to pick against Zeke. And even when the Cowboys should shift as run-heavy as they’ve been all year! Here’s my rationale: that offensive line has been absolutely brutalized by injury. Andy Dalton isn’t a make-something-out-of-nothing type of QB. And Washington has a very underrated front seven that should stuff the run and rush the passer. If the Cowboys can’t put together long drives, I don’t care what percent of plays they run with Zeke - he’s going to struggle to get enough chances to hit his 20.5 points.
David Johnson (vs. GB) - 14.5 - UNDER (Trent)
To hit a line of 14.5, a RB needs one of 3 things: a 30+ yard run, a TD, or a lot of targets (ppr scoring). David Johnson only has 3 TD’s on the season, he’s averaging 3 targets per game, and he hasn’t been an explosive RB racking up long runs. This week against the packers, I don’t see the stars aligning for Johnson to get over 14.5 Smash that under!
Chase Claypool (@ TEN) - 13 points - OVER (Jared)
I’ve been high on Claypool since the draft, and he’s done nothing but prove his worth in five games. Pittsburgh is getting him the ball through the air (15 targets since the bye) and on the ground (multiple rushing attempts and a TD in each of the past two weeks). With these lines in the 10-15 range, it’s really about whether they score a TD or not. Claypool is proving to have a nose for the end zone with 6 TDs in 5 games, and he also has a small chance to hit 13 just based on target volume in PPR, though that’s much more of a gamble.
Devin Singletary (@NYJ) - 14 - UNDER (Trent)
Running backs vs. the Jets are always smash plays - right? Eh, I’m not so sure. I’m staring at the 14 point line for Singletary, and taking the under here. Are the Jets bad? Yeah, but Singletary has been less than impressive as well. Singletary has only topped 14 points in 2 games this season. Weeks 5 and 6 were both under 6 points! This week, Moss should be back and stealing goal line work, so I’m taking the under here!
Calvin Ridley (vs DET) - 18 points - OVER (Jared)
This one is a less-confident pick than the prior two. The rub isn’t the player, but the line. We’re all high on Ridley and he’s been incredible this year. But 18 is an extremely high bar. Even as the top-scoring WR in fantasy, Ridley has only hit 18+ in four of six weeks. We do love the matchup against Detroit, though, and Ridley just has absurd target volume (averaging almost ten targets a game) and he’s usually better when Julio Jones is healthy and drawing top coverage - which he is in week 7.
Make your picks here!
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