Updated: Nov 14, 2020
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OUR PICKS FOR WEEK 10'S SUNDAY GAMES
We try to lay out a few Over/Unders that we feel good about for each slate, and encourage you to take our advice, but put your own twist on it! We aren't perfect, but we try to help you make the most informed entries you can! We recommend picking two players and doing a Flex play! Here are 6 options we like this week!
#1 Robert Woods vs Seattle - 15.5 points - OVER
*This line has now moved to 16.4 points (we’ll still go over)
The Seahawks are a dream matchup for wide receivers.Last week, Seattle let three WRs (Stefon Diggs, John Brown, Gabriel Davis) go over this 15.5-point margin.The week before they allowed two: Brandon Aiyuk and Kendrick Bourne. The week before that, they allowed two more: DeAndre Hopkins and Christian Kirk, with Larry Fitzgerald awfully close at 14.2. We could go back further than that, but the main point here is that even that partial list has a lot of receivers who aren’t as good as Robert Woods. Seattle’s defense will give up points to someone. Even if Cooper Kupp gets the majority, and even if a Josh Reynolds or Tyler Higbee steals some volume, Woods should have ample opportunity to get over 15.5 on his own.
We love Kupp’s line (17.5) in this matchup too. But it just makes sense to go with the lower line on Woods if you’re taking the over, especially with Kupp nursing a wrist injury.
#2 Kareem Hunt vs Houston - 13 points - OVER
This line feels a little like a reaction to Nick Chubb likely returning. There’s a lot of fear that Chubb will cut into Hunt’s workload… but before Chubb’s injury, there was plenty of scoring for both guys. In fact, Hunt’s touches without Chubb don’t look a whole lot different than his opportunities with Chubb. This week, specifically, we should note that Houston has been very bad against the pass - and against pass-catching running backs, which is exactly what Hunt is. Hunt is already averaging more fantasy points per game (15.5) this season than his line this week, and the matchup is great. The over feels like a big win here.
#3 Jerick McKinnon @ New Orleans - 12 points - UNDER
*This line has now moved to 13 (we still like under)
Here’s the deal: there is no predicting the 49ers backfield. There never has been. Kyle Shanahan uses his RBs in mysterious ways, and even when injuries limit his creative options, he consistently finds a way to surprise us. That means there’s some built-in risk with this pick… but the way we see it, it also gives us multiple potential scenarios where McKinnon ends up under this line: (1) the 49ers give McKinnon a lighter workload like they did two weeks ago, not wanting to overload a running back with two massive knee injuries in his history. That would give most of the work to Jamycal Hasty. (2) Shanahan schemes up an outside-the-box plan that delegates carries out to WRs like Brandon Aiyuk or Kendrick Bourne. Shanahan apparently had schemed his gameplan heavily around Aiyuk and Deebo Samuel last week, before both were added to the COVID list late. Or (3) the 49ers, essentially playing an entire offense of backups at this point including a backup QB and all backup RBs, struggle to move the ball the way they did last week, and no one has a great fantasy day, McKinnon included. This 12-point line would look a lot different if McKinnon hadn’t gotten a garbage time TD late last week - that’s the only reason he broke double digits.
All that is to say McKinnon might destroy this line. But there are multiple different scenarios where he doesn’t, and we feel OK playing the odds that one of them comes true on Sunday.
#4 Antonio Gibson @ Detroit - 11.5 points - OVER
*This line has moved to 12.4 (we still like over)
Gibson was battling a shoulder injury in practice this week, but it looks like he is all good to go! It feels like this line was set early in the week, and now that he is healthy, it will start rising. Gibson is averaging 13.2 PPR points per game, and this week he gets the Lions defense. Remember what Cook did to the Lions last week? Absolutely tore them apart. There is a slight fear that JD McKissic gets all of the passing work and steals some points from Gibson, but even if that happens, we think Gibson can hit 11.5 with most of the work on the ground!
#5 De’Andre Swift vs. Washington - 14 points - UNDER
*This line has moved down to 13.5 (we’ll still take the under, but it’s close)
We like De’Andre Swift, but this line just feels too high. The Washington Football Team has a solid defense and can shut down the run. Swift hasn’t been over 14 PPR points since week 7 vs. Atlanta, and this doesn’t feel like the right matchup to bounce back. If he ends up getting a TD, he should easily hit this line, but we like taking the under on guys who are TD dependent
#6 James Robinson @ Green Bay - 16 points - OVER
*This line has moved up to 16.6 (we still like over)
Let’s face it...James Robinson is legit! He is currently the RB4 on the year, averaging 18.7 PPR points per game. As the season goes on, the Jags continue to commit to Robinson, giving him 28 touches and 27 touches over the last two weeks. This week he faces a Green Bay defense that is susceptible to the run. Remember in week 9 when Dalvin Cook put up 48.60? Yeah...it’s that defense. We’re taking over here! It also looks like it might be windy in Lambo, so look for the Jags to keep things on the ground, and out of the hands of their rookie QB.
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